‘AKP chair, not leadership, is changing hands’

The ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) extraordinary congress to elect a new chairman to replace the outgoing Prime Minister and President-elect Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has taken place amid much fanfare.

“This is the first time that the AK Parti has organized an extraordinary congress. This is a take-over ceremony, not a race, and what is being taken over is the party chair, not the party leadership. There is no race and no competition. The AK Parti is more proud about having a single candidate than having a democratic race in the congress,” 

Here are Yetkin’s impressions from the congress hall:
- Ahmet Davutoğlu entered the hall with his wife Sare. The audience and the delegates in the hall cheered, but the real enthusiasm was probably reserved for President-elect Erdoğan. The organizers geared up the crowd by turning the volume of the music up. It was the live footage of Erdoğan from outside the hall that really enthused the crowd inside - not the announcement of the presenter who said, “We want to see your enthusiasm.”

- There is only one banner carrying a photo in Ankara Arena (above). The banner reads, “Your Way Is Our Way,” and it shows a picture of Davutoğlu right next to Erdoğan. The AK Parti is not looking for a new leader, but for an administrator who can manage the party and the government in the way that Erdoğan shows.

- When Erdoğan starts to speak at the front of the hall, all those inside also liven up. It’s easy to see why Erdoğan doesn’t want to be out of the party agenda: The crowd can only liven up with him. That’s why Erdoğan’s “This is not a farewell” remarks are the ones that drew the loudest applause. It seems that Davutoğlu has a really tough job on his hands.

- Süleyman Soylu, the former head of the Democrat Party (DP), which was a political rival of the AK Parti during its foundation and early period of governance, delivered the opening speech of the convention. Soylu joined the AK Parti in 2012, one year after it netted just under 50 percent of the votes in the parliamentary election, and even his positioning indicates that “the cause of the AK Parti” has turned into “the cause of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.” Some politicians who have “dedicated a life” to the cause are now watching the convention silently.

- With the air-conditioning at the Ankara Arena, filled with thousands of participants, failing to defeat the August sun, Emine Erdoğan used her fan to try to cool down herself and the elected-president Erdoğan. Journalists in the “press tribune” of the venue, meanwhile, used the congress program brochure on their desks as fans, while jokingly saying “sweating press” to each other, in reference to Erdoğan’s pledge to become a  “sweating president” active in many issues.

- In the first half of Erdoğan’s speech, Ali Babacan, the deputy prime minister responsible for the economy, was the only Cabinet member mentioned beside Ahmet Davutoğlu. Does this indicate that Babacan will remain as the head of the economy in the next government? Of course, the finance minister, the Central Bank governor and whether or not interest rates will fall sharply in accordance with Erdoğan’s demand are also important, but all eyes are now on Babacan. This will become clear when Davutoğlu announces his Cabinet on Friday.

- Davutoğlu's speech had a high pitch not only in terms of history and ideology, but also with its tone of excitement and lofty rhetoric. An important political message ran throughout it: There will not be a conflict between the president and the prime minister, who are both elected by popular vote. In fact, Erdoğan will be a president who received more votes than the government. Davutoğlu is fully aware that he is now shouldering a heavy burden and complete harmony between the president and the government will be needed to avoid disruptions.

Davutoğlu designated as AKP leader and new prime minister

Turkey’s ruling party has formally designated Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu to be the successor of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as both prime minister and chairman of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), marking the start of a new era in Turkish political life. 

The AKP’s Central Executive Board (MYK), which was convened under Erdoğan’s leadership, decided to propose Davutoğlu’s name for the chairmanship of the party, which will be elected during the AKP’s extraordinary congress in Ankara on Aug. 27. 

The decision was announced by Erdoğan after a three-hour meeting at the party headquarters.

"Our nominee is our foreign minister, our Konya deputy, our brother Ahmet Davutoğlu," Erdoğan told the crowd, which included government ministers and journalists, at the AKP headquarters in Ankara on Aug. 21. 

He said Davutoğlu was chosen following “very delicate deliberations” and due to his “determination to fight the ‘parallel state.’” The term “parallel state” is used by government supporters to refer to the followers of Islamic scholar and the AKP's ally-turned-nemesis Fethullah Gülen, who has been in voluntary exile in the United States for over a decade.

“We had consultations with everybody from the people on the street to the highest bodies of our party,” Erdoğan added regarding the selection of Davutoğlu. “We have come to a certain point in peace and brotherhood; the unity of this movement comes above everything. Many people hope for cracks within our party, but we have survived such operations.”

Davutoğlu took the stage after Erdoğan, addressing him as "Mr. President."

"The movement of the AK Party was not the product of a certain context. It is a movement rooted in a state tradition that walks to the future, and our president is our leader," Davutoğlu said, describing the party as "a movement that closed the interregnum and restored our state."

"The great restoration movement that has been realized over the past 12 years will continue without interruption. The country that was regarded as a sick man 12 years ago is now on its feet, has remembered its historic mission, and started a blessed march," he added, vowing that neither the "parallel state" nor any other force could stop this march.

Davutoğlu is expected to be given the mandate to form the next government by Erdoğan on Aug. 29, a day after the official presidential handover. He will become Turkey’s 26th prime minister following a procedural confidence vote at Parliament in early September. 

Strong support for Davutoğlu 
In-house consultations conducted by Erdoğan following his election as president on Aug. 10 indicated that Davutoğlu’s name was endorsed by the AKP’s relevant bodies and a considerable number of lawmakers. Even outgoing President Abdullah Gül recently touched on Davutoğlu’s probably candidacy for both positions, adding that he was sure the current foreign minister would be successful in his new capacity. 

The most prominent supporters of Davutoğlu include a group of younger generation politicians led by Ankara deputy Yalçın Akdoğan, one of Erdoğan’s closest advisors. Erdoğan’s decision to select Davutoğlu as the new leader may therefore also be interpreted as a sign that the ongoing struggle between young and veteran members of the AKP is coming to an end. 

Davutoğlu’s controversial foreign policy is still being discussed inside and outside Turkey. A former professor of international relations, Davutoğlu was appointed as foreign minister in 2009, despite not being a lawmaker at the time. He entered Parliament in 2011 as Konya deputy; but his role in shaping Turkish foreign policy dates back to 2002 under his capacity as chief advisor to PM Erdoğan and then-Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül. His book, titled “Strategic Depth,” contains important hints about the foreign policy understanding he has been propagating. 

Why did Erdoğan chose Davutoğlu?
There are various factors in Erdoğan’s selection of Davutoğlu as his successor. One of the most important reasons is the belief that Davutoğlu, as elected prime minister, would be the best option to work in full harmony with Erdoğan as elected president. For many, this harmony has been well tested over the years and Erdoğan would surely capitalize on it during his presidential tenure, to be started on Aug. 28. 

In addition, Davutoğlu’s loyalty to Erdoğan during difficult times, such as last summer’s anti-government Gezi Park protests, Dec. 17 corruption operation, fight against the “parallel state,” as well as his role in challenging Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu throughout the presidential election campaign, are seen as big pluses in the AKP.

As a respected figure in the party and a well-known figure among the AKP’s grassroots, Davutoğlu is also believed to have the capacity to run the party’s new cadres and management without causing too much in-house tension. This is particularly the case as Erdoğan wants a permanent AKP chairman and prime minister who will work with him at least until 2019.

Another factor paving the way for Davutoğlu is his academic background, which has contributed to the AKP’s nationalist-conservative rhetoric and policies. Although long criticized by many for pursuing dangerous “neo-Ottoman policies,” his passionate involvement in developments in Gaza, Egypt, Syria and elsewhere is seen as a positive among many AKP supporters.

Davutoğlu, to be the new Prime Minister of Turkey

A strong signal came from Erdoğan on Aug. 9, as he held his last and one of his largest public rallies in Konya, Davutoğlu’s hometown and stronghold.

With Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s election as president, politics in Ankara is now focused on the next prime minister and chairman of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), who is expected to be announced by Erdoğan in the coming days. 

The most likely scenario floating in the capital suggests two figures as potential prime ministers, Ahmet Davutoğlu and Binali Yıldırım, although the former has more of a chance. Yıldırım, however, is expected to serve for Erdoğan at the presidency as his right hand man. 

The AKP is expected to hold its extraordinary convention before the presidential handover slated for Aug. 28 in a bid to elect the new chairman so that Erdoğan will be able to give the mandate to form the new government on the same day he takes office. He is set to conclude consultations with the party within the coming days before announcing his successor. 

A strong signal came from Erdoğan on Aug. 9, as he held his last and one of his largest public rallies in Konya, Davutoğlu’s hometown and stronghold. On Aug. 10, front pages of numerous newspapers were full of stories about Davutoğlu who hinted that he was mentally ready to assume this job. The message he delivered between the lines was simple: if the next prime minister agrees to work in harmony with President Erdoğan then there would be no problem. 

What makes Davutoğlu more advantageous, in comparison to any other potential candidates, is that 
he has no three-term limitation problem, as he still can run for Parliament for two more terms. Another point is that he has shown full loyalty to Erdoğan in critical moments and has proven that he may continue to work in harmony with the president.  

Furthermore, although his performance as foreign minister has been controversial and debatable, his support to Erdoğan as ideologue is still very important given the fact that the party will now have to pass another test in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Davutoğlu is believed to have a capacity to mobilize the party’s grassroots and keep the party united and lead the Cabinet in the best possible way. 

However, he will have to accept that he will have no last word on many governmental decisions and even the next Cabinet will be prepared under Erdoğan’s control. In the case of Davutoğlu’s election as the next prime minister, the current EU Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the prime minister’s foreign policy advisor İbrahim Kalın and the current National Intelligence Organization (MİT) chief Hakan Fidan are all considered as potential foreign ministers. However, Çavuşoğlu is seen more close to this position while Kalın would continue to serve Erdoğan at the presidency. Fidan is likely to stay at the MİT, at this very important moment as the government continues to fight against the parallel state. To this end, Interior Minister Efkan Ala is expected to keep his position along with other ministers who joined the Cabinet in the last reshuffle in the fall of 2013.

The most important question, however, is whether Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan, who is responsible for the economy, and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek will continue on in the Cabinet. Babacan and Şimşek are facing internal criticisms especially from Yiğit Bulut, Erdoğan’s economic advisor, whose name is frequently mentioned among potential ministers although he is not a deputy.